Applying Decision Theory to Learning Design

As a learning designer, you're no stranger to the endless web of decisions that come with crafting captivating educational experiences. Should you include that extra module? What’s the best way to present information? Which learning activities will engage your audience the most? It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by all the choices. That’s where Decision Theory can help! 

 

What is this magical Decision Theory, you ask? Well, it's a field of study that examines how people make decisions, especially when faced with uncertainty. It involves assessing different options, considering potential outcomes, and selecting the one that best aligns with your goals.  In learning design, you can harness Decision Theory to make choices about how to structure content, select learning activities, and choose the best tools and methods for your audience. By applying this theory, you can improve the chances that your learners will engage with the material, understand the content, and achieve their learning goals. 

Before we dive into the nitty-gritty of applying Decision Theory to learning design, let’s look at some of the main ideas behind it: 

• Options – These are the different choices or strategies you can use in your design process. For example, when designing a lesson, your options might include choosing between a video lecture or an interactive activity.
  
  
• Outcomes – These are the potential results of each option. If you choose to use a video lecture, the outcome might be that learners understand the theory but don’t get much practice. If you choose an activity, the outcome might be that learners engage more but spend less time on the theoretical content.
   
• Probabilities – This is about weighing how likely each outcome is. For instance, if you know from past experience that learners tend to struggle with theoretical content when presented in video format, you might give that option a lower probability of success.
  
  
• Payoff or Value – This refers to how much value or benefit each outcome provides. In learning design, the payoff might be how well the option supports your learning objectives, how engaged your learners are, or how much they retain from the lesson. 

Ready to become a decision-making master? Let's dive in! 

1. Clarify Your Learning Goals

Start by identifying what you want your learners to achieve. What are the key objectives of your course or module? Do you want learners to gain theoretical knowledge, develop practical skills, or perhaps both? By having clear goals, you can make more informed decisions about which strategies are most likely to lead to those outcomes.   

2. Identify Your Options

Next, list out all the different options you have for achieving your goals. These might include different teaching methods, content formats, or tools. Don’t limit yourself yet—consider all possibilities, even if they seem unconventional. For example, you might wonder: Should I include a quiz? Should I try an interactive simulation? Should I break content into smaller chunks with frequent checkpoints?  

3. Assess Potential Outcomes

Once you’ve identified your options, think about the possible outcomes of each choice. What do you expect to happen if you choose one strategy over another? Try to predict the impact on your learners: Will they be more engaged? Will they retain the information better? Will they enjoy the process?  
For example, using an interactive case study might engage learners more, but it could also take up more time to prepare and might not be as effective for learners who prefer theoretical knowledge. A traditional lecture could save time but might not offer the same level of engagement.  

4. Consider Probabilities and Risks

You probably won’t know exactly how each option will turn out, but you can make educated guesses based on your experience and the context. Ask yourself: How likely is it that this option will work? If you’re designing for a group of beginners who tend to get overwhelmed, you might lower the probability of success for high-pressure activities like timed quizzes. On the other hand, if your learners are more experienced, you might increase the probability of success for complex simulations or case studies. Having many types of engaging activities in your toolbox will help you create the perfect experience for them.

5. Evaluate the Payoff

Now, think about the potential payoff for each option. Which choice will provide the most value for your learners? Consider things like engagement, retention, and overall learning outcomes.  A longer, more interactive lesson might be more effective for skill development but could reduce overall course completion rates if it’s too time-consuming. On the flip side, a shorter, more focused module might have a higher completion rate but result in less in-depth learning. The math with payoff is calculating the costs (e.g. time, effort, resources) against the benefits (e.g. engagement, learning outcomes).  

6. Make Your Decision

Finally, after weighing all the options, probabilities, and payoffs, make your decision. Remember, this doesn’t have to be perfect! Decision theory is about making the best choice based on available information. Once you’ve implemented your decision, you can monitor the results and adjust your design for future iterations. 

By mastering Decision Theory, you can make strategic decisions to create experiences that captivate your audience and drive meaningful, lasting results. 

Related blog: Designing Learning Experience